HONEST NUMBERS. BETTER DECISIONS.ARITHMETIC, NOT PROPHECY.SURVIVE FIRST. GET GOOD SECOND.NO EMAIL. NO SIGNUP. NO PITCH. HONEST NUMBERS. BETTER DECISIONS.ARITHMETIC, NOT PROPHECY.SURVIVE FIRST. GET GOOD SECOND.NO EMAIL. NO SIGNUP. NO PITCH.

The Broke Brokers

Broke now. Profit later.

The Honest Numbers · Rev. 2026.09
Verified engine · 2,000 runs per reading

Monte Carlo survival lab

Will your account
survive your strategy?

Most calculators show you the good outcome. This one runs your settings two thousand times and tells you how often the account doesn't make it.

Wilma studying risk scenarios at the Honest Numbers desk

FIELD NOTE 01 · SAME PLAN, DIFFERENT LUCK

Wilma auditing a grid of simulated outcomes

01 · Honest simulation

Same plan. Different luck.

Two thousand runs keep your settings fixed and change only the order of wins and losses. The spread is the lesson.

Wilma examining downside paths and drawdowns

02 · Downside visibility

The uncomfortable number leads.

The page puts losing-half probability, losing runs and drawdown ahead of anything that can be mistaken for a promise.

03 · Your real numbers

Replace guesses with history.

Paste your own R-multiples and the model updates the win rate and reward relationship from trades you actually took.

THE HONEST NUMBERS · RISK ALMANAC / REV. 2026.09 · VERIFIED ENGINE

How it works

A simple sequence, not a signal.

1
Enter your planAccount size, risk, reward, win rate and trading frequency.
2
We run it 2,000 timesThe settings stay still. The order of wins and losses changes.
3
Decide with your eyes openRead the downside first, then choose whether the size still makes sense.

The reading—

Chance of losing half the account

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Each square = 10 simulated years

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Worst losing run

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Not from mistakes — from ordinary luck at this win rate.

The drawdown that causes

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Break-even win rate

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One possible run · nine other draws behind it

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Where 2,000 runs finished

Below half

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Below start

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Above start

—

Survive first. Get good second.

Every number on this page moves further in your favour by risking less per trade than by being cleverer. That is the entire trick, and nobody sells a course on it.

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What it might make, if the edge is real

Deliberately behind a click. These figures assume a win rate you have not measured yet — and until you have, they are arithmetic about a stranger, not a forecast about you.

Per trade	Per week	Per month
—	—	—

Expectancy only. It assumes the win rate and reward hold exactly, on every trade, forever. No real strategy does that, and nothing here predicts what any market will do.

Use your own numbers

Paste your last trades as R multiples — one per line or comma separated. A trade that made twice what it risked is 2. One that hit its stop is -1. Breakeven is 0.

no trades yet

Your trades never leave this browser. There is no server on this page — open view-source and check. Twenty trades is enough to start. Not enough to be sure, but enough to stop guessing, which is where everyone else is standing.

"I sniffed this setup… still not convinced."

A note from the desk

Survive first. Get good second.

The point is not to find a prettier projection. It is to understand what your sizing asks you to endure before real money is on the line.

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